Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, we have heard that NATO is in crisis and that the European Union should play a bigger role in the remainder of European defense as part of a strategic deterrent. The Trump presidency also stressed the need to give up defending Europe after forty years of presence on the continent. An economic region as prosperous as Europe, with social budgets that many in the United States envy, should not yet give its security to third parties.
This outsourcing of defense made only one sense: the governments could not wear themselves down in front of the voters, who are much more complex than the North American ones, and use their resources to rebuild a Europe that only had to emerge from the devastation of 1945 and 1945 in 1989 had to absorb the collapse of the east. Relations between Russia and the United States have always been much worse than between Russia and Europe and this ensured that our ally would always choose the West so the risk of being left alone was very limited.
However, with the arrival of Trump, for nearly one hundred and fifty years we discovered a latent reality in the United States, its longed-for neutrality to continue to lead the world. Today Europe feels much more threatened by Russia than before. Attitudes towards the actions of the Putin administration are provoking greater confrontation while the United States, possibly due to its distant physical and psychological nature, puts its interests before the defense of the rights of Russian citizens who have contributed neither to the security of the world nor to security the good of the United States.
Russia has always hovered between its westward expansionism and its need to forge economic alliances with Europe. The European response to this strategy was confrontation. The result is that Russia looks further east, to the Silk Road, to China to India. Europe is playing an increasingly important role for Russia. It sees it as that wild little friend who keeps pecking us but is unable to hurt us.
The new Biden administration shows an obvious Europism and a clear confrontation with Russia, but you have to be careful with such forceful statements when talking about US foreign policy. Biden continues to press Europe to spend more and continues its progressive military dismantling on the old continent. For Washington, China is the great strategic enemy.
Russia is playing an increasingly important role in this great world conflict that will shape the rest of the century. Americans must invest and turn to this new reality, which has two scenarios: Africa, the continent of the two great powers. and the China Sea and Southeast Asia, from Japan to India and from New Zealand to Mongolia. Half of the world’s population lives here and a large part of the planet’s GDP is collected.
The Middle East and the European border with Russia no longer play a role. In the first case, because Russia is experiencing a demographic and economic winter that will make it a second-level power once it falls from the cherry on top that Putin has; and in the Middle East, because oil will be a minor product two decades from now, given the advent of new technologies that will reduce fossil fuel reliance in just twenty or thirty years.
Without oil, the countries of the Middle East will be just as strategically irrelevant as those on the African leaf. As a result, Europe and the Atlantic Alliance are becoming less relevant internationally, which does not mean that their security challenges have diminished. This Russia remains a major military threat to the small European armies, and Russian gas will heat the Central European countries for many years to come.
In other words, the 20th Century Cold War has become a regional conflict, no longer shaped by any other political and ideological model, but merely by traditional economic and political rivalries. Old Europe is once again facing its traditional problems, which for centuries have filled it with wars and nationalisms, and in this competition the United States will be the last to enter.
Defense spending in the European Union is still ridiculous. The fragmentation of supply and demand, which we have been talking about for sixty years, continues and there are still different strategic interests in the countries of Europe which make common policy impossible. The political unity that some longed for has been blown up as the current model is to preserve the authenticity of each country. also with a policy that contradicts the spirit of the European Constitution.
Today Brussels is an attempt to raise additional funds, and as long as rich Europe swallows, unity will remain. The old continent must use all of this new generation model to strengthen its industrial and technological structure for its security. The technological backwardness is still very great and we cannot allow it to become clear that we have missed the boat not only with the United States but also with Russia, because then Europe will be under the jaws of Moscow.
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