The new tenant of the White House has had a very different agenda than Donald Trump since day one. The Republican had adopted a tactic of outsourcing security in the region to his allies, strengthening them with all sorts of concessions, and supplying weapons from his most modern arsenal, with the aim of getting them to star, if they were the most important affected. It is in this sense that the concessions to Israel must be understood by recognizing the capital in Jerusalem and supporting its actions, overt or clandestine, against its neighbors.
Its second major ally in the region was Saudi Arabia, which received the most ambitious arms sales package in recent history and would enjoy full autonomy to continue its war in Yemen and maintain pressure on everyone in the region’s great enemy, Iran . It also led other allies to join this alliance, notably the United Arab Emirates, which were authorized to purchase modern F-35s just a few dozen miles from the Iraqi coast. and above all his great success, in my opinion, the restoration of relations between Arab countries such as the Emirates and Israel, which broke with the traditional Arab consensus on the Israel-Palestine question.
Trump exerted heavy pressure on Iran and refused to make concessions, as well as Turkey, which he blacklisted as countries buying defense systems as his diplomacy came dangerously close to the interests of Russia and Iran. Well, every perfectly braided and coherent strategy has been blown up and has an uncertain outcome. The most immediate decisions were a hard landing before its Arab allies. The suspension of the sale of the aircraft to the Emirates occurred at the same time as the new North American government marked distances from Riyadh. A status review with Iran has also already been carried out without Tehern having brought about a change in his foreign policy. Ultimately, Biden will weaken his allies in the region without us knowing what alternatives will be put on the table.
It does not seem likely that he will give in on recognizing Jerusalem, but his more than likely rapprochement with the Palestinians will create new tensions that will fuel the more radical movements in Gaza and the West Bank. If the United States re-enters the European Union’s game with Iran, it will be further strengthened both in its policies and in its rapprochement with Russia and China, while its support in Syria will increase its pressure in Assad, which undoubtedly implies a phase in the resurgence of the civil war in Syria. If Biden decides to reinforce the Kurds again to counter Iranian and Turkish pressure, the problem with Ankara will be emphasized.
The White House has only two options: Either it makes the hornet’s nest much more dangerous and does nothing, leaves its allies in the region without means of defense and disengages; or end up intervening militarily with an apology, such as defending the Kurds or Jordan or one of the weakest elements in the alliance chain in the Middle East. Without the pressure of black gold and with prices soaring making many of Canada’s fracking and sand deposits more profitable, Europe would remain, above all, a hot potato with no choice but to give up. Unlike the US, Europe needs its strongest enemies to survive. Without Russia and without the Middle East, Europe will die of cold and without mobility. For these reasons, Europe, no matter how loud it may be, will try to get Biden to normalize relations with Russia and Iran. If he falls into the trap, it can be a strategic mistake that has dire consequences for the rest of the century.
We have to understand that the great conflict of the 21st century for global hegemony between a model of authoritarian capitalism, of which Russia and especially China are the maximum representatives, and another model of liberal social democracy after Trump’s exit from the White House, Europe and the US lead. All regional conflicts must be understood and framed within this dynamic. The second actors choose one of the blocks not according to their political or cultural proximity, but to the extent to which they best satisfy their particular interests. While the West has fallen asleep for the past twenty years, the enemies have not stopped expanding their strategy.
Russia continues to threaten Europe as it approaches Turkey and India, as well as the former Silk Road republics. China continues to expand southward, and in that key must be understood the coup in Myanmar and its clearly bellicose language against Taiwan and the pro-westerners of the Pacific Ocean (mainly Australia, Japan and South Korea). Russia and China have regained a presence in Latin America, with their allies under the name of populists once again dominating the political scene in Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela. Nicaragua, Mexico and Cuba, the latter still being the axis on which all policy against the West on the continent revolves. A loosening of relations with Havana will strengthen communist influence in Latin America. In Africa we will take part in the next big stage of this competition.
Biden has got off to a very bad start in foreign policy. This relaxation will bring neither more security nor more prosperity. strengthen his enemies and alienate those who have been his most loyal allies. It seems that the new American foreign policy was designed more by Pablo Iglesias than by Merkel or Johnson. Let us hope that it will be corrected in time to avoid consequences that will be catastrophic, especially for Europe, which decades ago, when the United States began at the beginning of the century, should have started a policy of energy independence in order to live apart from so many quarrels that they will only cause us problems in our daily lives and in our safety.
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